There is a saying out there that you live and learn. And I learned alot after what I will describe as a terrible, horrific baseball handicapping season. Yea, I still show up on the leaderboards at the monitors but that is besides the point. I have goals in every sport of what I want to accomplish and not only did I fall well short of those goals for myself but more importantly I failed the people who put their trusts in me…my clients.
To go from 3-4 remarkable years in Baseball to what I produced in 2010 has me down in the dumps. I can live with the losses as I know that this business of handicapping can deal you curve balls in a New York minute. What I cannot deal with is letting down my clients.
The season itself started out strong and we were cruising in May and into the first few weeks of June. Everything was going as planned. Then the gambling Gods had enough of our success. I proceeded to go from being up 30 Units in Mid June to only being up 4.3 Units at the All Star Break. I knew from talking to local vegas book directors to even some guys in the syndicates that there was nothing wrong with my methods..it was one simple fact. In baseball, traditionally, Underdogs between 100-160 win 45% of the baseball games thruout the course of a season. This stat has proven itself out for years. However, at the All Star break, Underdogs at these prices were only hitting 39%. Something had to change and just like how I use baseball sabermetrics to handicap, where I look at Pitchers who are due for an upswing or downtrend, I thought for sure that Underdogs in this price range would start making a correction towards the 45% figure. Well, after the All Star Break, I didnt change anything and went on an absolute terror thru the end of July all the way thru August. I was even named handicapper of the month of August by CappersMonitor. My units went from +4.3 all the way to +32.7. I was riding high.
Then, came September. I was always told by others that have been in this business for years to stop playing baseball after August. I was told to take whatever I won thru August and go home. And in past years, that is exactly what I did.
However, this season, I did not. I felt that I had an obligation to my clients to keep the season going because face it, I had alot of consecutive years where I won +90 Units in baseball and although I knew I would never reach that plateau in 2010, I sincerely felt that I owed it to my clients to get as close to that figure as possible.
So, basically, this was my first season making baseball selections in September ignoring all those who told me not to touch baseball this time of the year. You had roster expansions, pitchers who showed great form thru August basically mailing it in if their teams were no longer in contention, and even great pitchers who were in pennant races taking it easy saving their arms for the playoffs.
All in all, in hindsight, it is a totally different type of handicapping. And I found out real quick that the models that I setup are not made for September baseball. So, why then did I keep going knowing I was in the middle of a crapshoot? The answer again, is I promised my clients a service and by not giving out selections when a season is still going on, is a disservice. If I had not started this handicapping service in January of last year, I would have kept my same exact opinion of September baseball and not played it at all….taking my 32 Units and going home to concentrate on football and the NBA.
There are a few stats that I look back on that has me just shaking my head. We didnt have alot of luck either. We had 36 games where we were in position to get the cover going into the 8th inning only to lose those games. Bullpens in baseball this year were absolutely horrendous. I cannot remember any other year where the bullpens were this bad. In past years, you just used a certain factor to compensate for the bullpens that basically was a 4.00 ERA in no uncertain terms. This season, the factor was well below that figure.
All in all, this baseball season can best be described as humbling. Next season, I will let all of my clients know ahead of time that there will be NO selections after August. Zero For the many of you that joined me for this baseball season, I thank you. For me to say I am sorry for letting you down would be an understatement and if you do not join me next season, I totally understand. I didnt produce. Period
