What happened in that Northwestern/Michigan State game is a prime example of being on the right side but not getting the cash. You have Michigan State, first faking a punt, throwing the ball up for grabs, and the kid from Northwestern properly defending the intended receiver but for whatever reason an easy interception is NOT made and a completion is. You had Northwestern up 17-0 and a chance to go up 24-0 with the ball resting on the Michigan State one yard line…fail to score. Then to top everything off…with Michigan State leading 28-27, with 1:30 left in the game, they are 4 yards from a first down and then they take a knee right? No…the Michigan State RB who should have fell down after gaining first down yardage instead darts to the end zone breaking what seemed to be 100 tackles. This beyond stupid play which gave the ball back to Northwestern which was the last thing the Spartans wanted costs us the cover. There is no reason whatsoever that Michigan State should have won that game, let alone take the cash!

Fresno State -19 against San Jose State….There were so many things that happened in this game it was beyond laughable. I am not even going to mention them. The score of this game should have been around 49-11….NOT 33-18…again…a prime example of being on the right side but not getting the cash.

West Virginia was a bad beat and I take full responsibility for that loss. I should have known that thruout West Virginia’s past, this is what they do Over and Over and Over again. So much talent…so much speed…an unbelievably talented and speedy defense. In fact, to this day, I believe they are Oregon’s equal. Except for one thing…Oregon has Chip Kelly and West Virginia has Bill Stewart. WVU is the worst coached offensive team in the country bar none. If they would have just kept the offense that Rich Rodriguez had in place. Everything was setup for this team to make national title runs on a consistent basis. That was….until Bill Stewart took over.

Nonetheless….we are still kicking some tail in College Football hitting well over 60% of the selections and are sitting either at or near the top of all the monitor rankings. All we can do is keep doing what we do best and let the games play out. There will always be value to find in college football.

NBA starts next week and I cannot wait. I am fully prepared for this season. All of my models in the database have gone thru their tests, all players have been evaluated, all refs have been evaluated, and all teams have been evaluated.

This next week, I should start making some hockey selections. I do not make alot of hockey selections as I really try to pick my spots. But the season is starting to take shape.

College Basketball is also right around the corner. I am trying to spend at least 5 hours per week on college basketball but more likely than not, we will not have amy selections in college hoops til mid December at the earliest.

Thats it for now..hope everyone has a wonderful and safe weekend!–Bob

To go from 3-4 remarkable years in Baseball to what I produced in 2010 has me down in the dumps. I can live with the losses as I know that this business of handicapping can deal you curve balls in a New York minute. What I cannot deal with is letting down my clients.

The season itself started out strong and we were cruising in May and into the first few weeks of June. Everything was going as planned. Then the gambling Gods had enough of our success. I proceeded to go from being up 30 Units in Mid June to only being up 4.3 Units at the All Star Break. I knew from talking to local vegas book directors to even some guys in the syndicates that there was nothing wrong with my methods..it was one simple fact. In baseball, traditionally, Underdogs between 100-160 win 45% of the baseball games thruout the course of a season. This stat has proven itself out for years. However, at the All Star break, Underdogs at these prices were only hitting 39%. Something had to change and just like how I use baseball sabermetrics to handicap, where I look at Pitchers who are due for an upswing or downtrend, I thought for sure that Underdogs in this price range would start making a correction towards the 45% figure. Well, after the All Star Break, I didnt change anything and went on an absolute terror thru the end of July all the way thru August. I was even named handicapper of the month of August by CappersMonitor. My units went from +4.3 all the way to +32.7. I was riding high.

Then, came September. I was always told by others that have been in this business for years to stop playing baseball after August. I was told to take whatever I won thru August and go home. And in past years, that is exactly what I did.

However, this season, I did not. I felt that I had an obligation to my clients to keep the season going because face it, I had alot of consecutive years where I won +90 Units in baseball and although I knew I would never reach that plateau in 2010, I sincerely felt that I owed it to my clients to get as close to that figure as possible.

So, basically, this was my first season making baseball selections in September ignoring all those who told me not to touch baseball this time of the year. You had roster expansions, pitchers who showed great form thru August basically mailing it in if their teams were no longer in contention, and even great pitchers who were in pennant races taking it easy saving their arms for the playoffs.

All in all, in hindsight, it is a totally different type of handicapping. And I found out real quick that the models that I setup are not made for September baseball. So, why then did I keep going knowing I was in the middle of a crapshoot? The answer again, is I promised my clients a service and by not giving out selections when a season is still going on, is a disservice. If I had not started this handicapping service in January of last year, I would have kept my same exact opinion of September baseball and not played it at all….taking my 32 Units and going home to concentrate on football and the NBA.

There are a few stats that I look back on that has me just shaking my head. We didnt have alot of luck either. We had 36 games where we were in position to get the cover going into the 8th inning only to lose those games. Bullpens in baseball this year were absolutely horrendous. I cannot remember any other year where the bullpens were this bad. In past years, you just used a certain factor to compensate for the bullpens that basically was a 4.00 ERA in no uncertain terms. This season, the factor was well below that figure.

All in all, this baseball season can best be described as humbling. Next season, I will let all of my clients know ahead of time that there will be NO selections after August. Zero For the many of you that joined me for this baseball season, I thank you. For me to say I am sorry for letting you down would be an understatement and if you do not join me next season, I totally understand. I didnt produce. Period

Football has started out with a bang! In the NFL, thru preseason and week 1, the record sits at 7-2-2 and I am up 4.75 Units. College Football is even better as I enter week 3 with a 9-1-1 record and up 7.95 Units.

However, football will get much harder as it gets deeper into this season as right now the books are still feeling out all the teams. The lines and totals will become much much sharper as data accumulates. That said, as long as I approach my handicapping from an oddsmakers perspective, the wins will continue to come.

This may sound strange to some, but I have already began work on the NBA and also college basketball. The basketball season will be here before you know it and I want to be fully prepared to bash the books again this season as I have in the past. But it is never easy and trust me when I say that I work harder on the NBA than any other sport, continuing to refine my data and also my handicapping models, which I believe are the best there is today.

I am looking forward to baseball ending though. It kind of gives me a 2-3 week break until basketball actually starts.

I will try to update this blog more frequently than I do but between football and baseball joining together, it has been very hard to find the time. And I owe every bit of free time I get to my paying clients by doing unlimited research trying to find the best selections possible.

Until next time, everyone be safe and have a great weekend!

Bob

Football is here…finally! I do not dig in much during the preseason, because I feel that it is too much of a crapshoot. However, there will be times when the books will over or under value teams and totals and when they do, we will respond by making them pay.

In football, I really dont get into a lot of stats like I do with baseball or basketball. To me, the football linemaker tells a story with the number they send out. All I do after the games complete on Sundays is to make a list for the following week on teams that I believe will be over valued and under valued. If there is a situation where an over valued team plays an under valued team, I will then cap that game vigorously. Also, keep this in mind for the football season both college and pro: If I think the favorite is being undervalued, I will normally make my selection on that team when the line opens. If I think the Underdog is being undervalued, I will likely not make my selection until the day of the game. So, unlike baseball, when I try to post my selections the night before the games, football is a different story because you are dealing with point spreads and line movements.

To all of my clients, thank you for sticking with me thru the good and the bad. I have always said and will always say that investing in sports betting is long term. Keep managing your bankrolls properly and DO NOT stray off course. Be diligent in this area! If you do this, you cannot help but make money.

Have a wonderful and safe weekend !

What is the reason for this? Well, Underdogs in baseball between the prices of +100 to +160 have always and traditionally won 45% of the games played. That has not been the case this season as that percentage is off around 4%. Will it correct itself? I am not sure. But all I can do is to stay the course with my handicapping style. I am not going to change anything. I have made a few tweeks. Bullpens this season are by far the worst they have ever been so I have been placing more weight on them in my selections. I had lost countless games after the 7th inning this season…moreso than any other season I can remember. But I will keep churning and I fully expect to dominate baseball the rest of the way.

Football is right around the corner and I am certainly looking forward to it. All my time away from baseball has been preparing for the upcoming football season. And, I will begin preparing for the Basketball season at the end of August.

I continue to urge all my clients to use strict money management principles when investing in sports and remember the only way to make money in this business is NOT by the selections but in the way you manage your bankroll. If you do that and I cannot stress it enough, you cannot help but make money. If you are losing money right now, you are not managing your bankroll correctly. it is that simple.

I will try to update this blog more than I have been but preparing for football and also handicapping baseball with the season being in full gear, time has been my enemy.

To all my clients and prospective clients, I hope you all have a safe and wonderful weekend.–Bob

So anyways, I went back thru my picks this season to find out how many games that were lost after the 7th inning. Let me just say that the figure is ALARMING! I took the games that I won after the 7th inning and compared that to the losses….the result was that if the games ended in the 7th, I would be up another 21 units! 21UNITS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This time last year, I was at a positive 41 units. In 2008, +47 units….This season? 22 Units.

What I am trying to say is I believe I am handicapping the games correctly and I will stand by that and noone can tell me differently. In all my pitching evaluation models, bullpen is figured in at 1/3 for the simple reason is that like I said before, managers are programmed to get their starters out of the game after 6 innings no matter what.

The bottom line is that managers today like bullpen pitchers flat out stink and it is beyond me how they keep their jobs. Instead of managing to win, they manage not to lose. A few weeks back, KC manager Ned Yost yanked Zack Greinke after the 7th inning when he got to 100 pitches for a rookie bullpen pitcher who had a FIP of almost 6. Greinke was pitching a two hitter and was in Cy Young form. The rookie got shelled and the Royals went home a loser. Now if I am the GM of the Royals, I fire Yost immediately. Why would anyone in their right mind take out a former Cy Young award winner who is pitching two hit ball for a rookie who has been knocked all over the park all season long? It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever!!!! Greinke at 200 pitches is better than anyone KC has in their God Awful bullpen!

I am gonna stop now because I could go on about this forever. in my day, starting pitchers only came out of games if they were not pitching well or got themselves in a jam and its very hard for me to understand todays game.

Until tomorrow, have a great night!–Bob

The NBA Playoffs begin tomorrow night in LA when the Lakers face the Celtics. I think I know which way I want to approach this series, but I want to see a game first. Both teams have been off and I want to see who maybe showing the rust. At the same time, the rest should help Boston, who is obviously the much older team.

Sad to hear of the retirement of Ken Griifey Jr today, who was one of my favorite players of all time. Junior is a certain first ballot hall of famer and will be remembered not only for the remarkable stats he put up over the years, but also for the way he played the game. Junior always gave 100% and there was never a time when he didnt play the game the way it was meant to be played. There is no doubt in my mind if not for some nagging injuries, Junior would be holding the home run record and not Barry Bonds….and Junior would have done it “cleanly”. I wish Junior nothing but the best in the future but also wish he elects to stay close to the game in some capacity as baseball needs more people like Ken Griffey Jr.

Here is to hopefully cashing more winning tickets!! Until tomorrow, have a great night everyone!–Bob

Although we failed on the Celtics, the rest of our selections treated us dearly! We nailed the puck line in the Flyers/Habs game at +175 with a late empty netter. Thats the problem with betting puck lines…it seems like it always comes down to whether there is an empty netter or not. But we got it and it was a nice ticket to cash.

On the diamond, we took the big money line on the Pirates and it lost but I still think the +155 was a tremendous value. Harang had been struggling and the Pirates always seem to annoy other teams best pitchers. Despite that loss, we nailed our other 3 baseball selections with the White Sox, Jays, and Red Sox.

All in all, a profitable Monday night. Today, I expect to dominate the baseball card again with 5 selections now loaded up at VegasWiseguyPlays.com. Our seasonal packages are still on sale for less than 60 bucks and a yearly pass to all sports runs less than $120 bucks.

Hope everyone has a great day today!!–Bob

Interleague play starts today and I have 5 selections up right now at vegaswiseguyplays.com. During interleague play, since there is not alot of data for interleague, I use a game elimination system that will select nothing but underdogs. Underdogs typically do VERY WELL in interleague play…lets just hope we find the dogs that are barking. Despite the very average at best  4 days I had, vegaswiseguyplays is still amongst the leaders at all the monitoring services. There is alot of baseball to be played and there is only one goal and that is to be named baseball handicapper of the year at all the monitors.

The NBA resumes this weekend with the conference finals game 3s. I have a strong opinion on both conference final games and I will undoubtedly have selections up on the website, especially if the lines pretty much stay where they are at. After hearing former ref Tim Donaghy on a national radio show last week, I am convinced that David Stern’s hands are tied if he gives directives aimed at extending series. For old times sake, Donaghy went on a Miami radio station talk show at the beginning of the NBA playoffs and to prove to david stern that biases still exist in the nba, agreed to submit his plays to this radio station on 14 playoff games. After going an astounding 13-1!!!!!!!!!!! Donaghy decided to quit.

NBA Ref Joe Derosa was “suspended” for one game without pay this week for throwing a basketball at an unruly fan who happended to be the CEO of Windham Hotels. However, folks, dont think for one minute that David Stern actually suspended DeRosa because there is no way of knowing when DeRosa is scheduled again. The only people that know and create the ref schedules are Stern and his higher ups and since DeRosa is a “company” guy, I guarantee he doesnt miss any games. I do know this: If that was a player who tossed that ball to a fan like DeRosa did, that player was missing the rest of the playoffs and then some.

Until tomorrow….have a great weekend everyone!–Bob

The Lakers/Suns series got started last night with the Lakers running the Suns out of the building. The Suns found out one important thing and that is that Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest, unlike the Blazers and Spurs, PLAY DEFENSE especially at the perimeter. The Suns outscored the Blazers and Spurs by over 100 points from 3 point land in their previous series. Didnt happen against Bryant and Artest though as they combine to guard the perimeter better than anyone in basketball. Its not going to get easier for the Suns and I still believe they take a game or two in this series.

The Magic and Celts suit up tonight for game 2 of their series with the Magic currently listed as 7.5 chalk with a total of 188.5. I may have a selection on this game so be sure to check the website frequently.

Hopefully today will bless us with even more winners on the diamond…until tomorrow…Have a great day everyone!–Bob